Statistical Forecasting and Decision-making
Date: 2018-10-24 Views: 13

Statistical Forecasting and Decision-making

Course No.: SMI1122110    Credit(s): 2

Course Description

In a market environment with increasingly complex economic and management phenomena and rapidly changing market conditions, In many cases, scientific predictions and decisions are required for unaffirmed things. It is necessary to make a reliable estimate of the indicators concerned in order to make appropriate decisions on the basis of incomplete observation data. This course firstly introduces qualitative prediction method, which includes Delphi method, subjective probability method, scenario Forecasting method and other methods of qualitative Forecasting; Secondly, the regression Forecasting method is introduced, including single linear regression Forecasting method, multiple linear regression and nonlinear regression Forecasting method; Thirdly, it introduces the time series Forecasting method, including trend extrapolation, time series smoothing Forecasting and so on; Finally, it introduces various decision-making methods, including risk decision-making methods, etc.

Course Learning Outcomes

Through the teaching of this course, we can cultivate the practical ability of the students, and aggregate, group and organize data for large-scale social surveys, and ability of quantitative analysis and research for basic data.

Relationship to Other Courses

The prerequisite for this course is Statistics, Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics, Macroeconomics, Microeconomics and Economic Time Series Analysis.

Textbook and Reading Lists

Textbook:

Guoxiang Xu, Statistical Forecasting and Decision-making (5th edition). Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press, 2016.1. general higher education 11th Five-Year national planning teaching material.

Suggested reading lists:

Jianping Zhu, Economic Forecasting and Decision-making (1st edition). XiaMen University Press, 2012.1.

Renqun Wu, Economic Forecasting and Decision-making (1st edition). Renmin University of China Press, 2011.9.

Wenquan Feng, Economic Forecasting and Decision-making Technology (5th edition). WuHan University Press, 2008.4.

Course Assessment

Item

Title

Weighting (%)

1

Task in home

10%

2

Test and Questions in class

10%

3

Final exam

80%

Course Schedule

Week

Topics

Text

1

Summary of Statistical Prediction

Chapters 1

2-3

Qualitative Prediction Method

Chapters 2

4 -5

Regression Prediction Method

Chapters 3

6-8

Time Series Decomposition Method and Trend Extrapolation   Method

Chapters 4

9-11

Time Series Smoothing Prediction Method

Chapters 5

12

Cointegration and Error Correction Model

Chapter 6

13

Grey Prediction Method

Chapter 7

14

Prediction Accuracy Measurement and Prediction Evaluation

Chapter 8

15-16

Summary of Statistical Decision Making

Chapter 9

17-18

Risk Decision Making Method

Chapter 10