Statistical Forecasting and Decision-making
Course No.: SMI1122110 Credit(s): 2
Course Description
In a market environment with increasingly complex economic and management phenomena and rapidly changing market conditions, In many cases, scientific predictions and decisions are required for unaffirmed things. It is necessary to make a reliable estimate of the indicators concerned in order to make appropriate decisions on the basis of incomplete observation data. This course firstly introduces qualitative prediction method, which includes Delphi method, subjective probability method, scenario Forecasting method and other methods of qualitative Forecasting; Secondly, the regression Forecasting method is introduced, including single linear regression Forecasting method, multiple linear regression and nonlinear regression Forecasting method; Thirdly, it introduces the time series Forecasting method, including trend extrapolation, time series smoothing Forecasting and so on; Finally, it introduces various decision-making methods, including risk decision-making methods, etc.
Course Learning Outcomes
Through the teaching of this course, we can cultivate the practical ability of the students, and aggregate, group and organize data for large-scale social surveys, and ability of quantitative analysis and research for basic data.
Relationship to Other Courses
The prerequisite for this course is Statistics, Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics, Macroeconomics, Microeconomics and Economic Time Series Analysis.
Textbook and Reading Lists
Textbook:
Guoxiang Xu, Statistical Forecasting and Decision-making (5th edition). Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press, 2016.1. general higher education 11th Five-Year national planning teaching material.
Suggested reading lists:
Jianping Zhu, Economic Forecasting and Decision-making (1st edition). XiaMen University Press, 2012.1.
Renqun Wu, Economic Forecasting and Decision-making (1st edition). Renmin University of China Press, 2011.9.
Wenquan Feng, Economic Forecasting and Decision-making Technology (5th edition). WuHan University Press, 2008.4.
Course Assessment
Item | Title | Weighting (%) |
1 | Task in home | 10% |
2 | Test and Questions in class | 10% |
3 | Final exam | 80% |
Course Schedule
Week | Topics | Text |
1 | Summary of Statistical Prediction | Chapters 1 |
2-3 | Qualitative Prediction Method | Chapters 2 |
4 -5 | Regression Prediction Method | Chapters 3 |
6-8 | Time Series Decomposition Method and Trend Extrapolation Method | Chapters 4 |
9-11 | Time Series Smoothing Prediction Method | Chapters 5 |
12 | Cointegration and Error Correction Model | Chapter 6 |
13 | Grey Prediction Method | Chapter 7 |
14 | Prediction Accuracy Measurement and Prediction Evaluation | Chapter 8 |
15-16 | Summary of Statistical Decision Making | Chapter 9 |
17-18 | Risk Decision Making Method | Chapter 10 |
